Is Iran merely posturing with anti-Israeli rhetoric and defiance of the West's attempt at nuclear regulation in a succesful attempt to achieve higher prices on its (and the rest of the middle east's) oil exports? Thats my theory.
Why does OPEC and Saudi Arabia lack transparency with disclosing details concerning their oil reserves? Is this yet another attempt at price manipulation? I theorize perhaps these countries have more to lose by revealing the possibility that production is near peak capabilities. If the oil buying market knew as a confirmed fact that it only had 5 years or less of time where production would be capable of exceeding demand, perhaps it would seek out alternatives more agressively. With that in mind, emerging alternatives would sooner lower the demand for the product, and in the end reduce the bottom line profits that the oil superpowers are enjoying sooner than later.
On the same token, a choice (which hasn't happened) by OPEC/Saudi interests to reveal facts that tell an opposite story, of unlimited reserves and excess production capabilities would only make sense if it was true. If it was truly substantiated, the market would decide that cheap oil is forever here to stay, and we'd be back to $20/barrel days. I speculate the oil superpowers would be happy with this revenue if they believed in their unlimited resources. Not only would no alternatives to oil be pursued by consuming nations (no reason because of cost feasibility), but world economic growth would be unhindered relative to today's story, and demand would grow even more than it already has. In other words, the oil superpowers would stand to gain more in the long term by keeping oil cheap if they had unlimited supplies.
If we all knew oil would cost $100-$150/barrel indefinitely because of an inability for the oil superpowers to keep up with demand, we would quickly move to some other energy source. The oil superpowers know this too, and that's why they have so far managed to stick with a combination of secrecy and supply manipulation to avoid that threshold. With a little more thought, it would make sense to use every possible attempt to manipulate the price within a certain level, maximizing profit, while keeping it cheap enough not to curtail growth. Certainly with high oil prices between $60-$75 over the last six months, it must appear pretty clear to the oil superpowers that economic growth has not yet been impeded enough to where demand (which is a bit inelastic) has been affected. Now it makes sense for Iran to stimulate a little political turmoil to help elevate the prices within control. It benefits the entire mid-east.
Take a look at these links. First amongst them being an article written after I originally posted this idea postulating on Iran's growing dependence on high oil prices.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12667614/site/newsweek/site/newsweek/
http://yahoo.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_20/b3984001.htm
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-570288889128950913&q=ethanol&pl=true
http://www.energybulletin.net/1560.html
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/IEA-SOM.pdf
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-06-02.html
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