These are two contrary readings. The 5 year US treasury yield is 1.47%, while the 'risk premium' determined by CDS prices to insure them is .695% (69.5 bp).
As much as the flight to quality has driven treasuries and the US dollar to recent highs, it is a peculiar point to consider that in the same environment of minimal counterparty trust that someone is willing to pay 69 basis points a year for insurance to likely a less viable counterparty than the US government. This is the same environment where banks still trust each other less 1 year out (1.86% 1 year LIBOR) than they trust the US government 5 years (1.47%). A 1 year treasury earns you a hefty .40% yield, apples to apples.
Maybe if these CDS were denominated in gold ounces or euros and collateralized by future earnings of the CDS writers' first born might they make any sense.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Treasuries Credit Default Swaps at Record Highs, Yet Yields Record Lows?
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