Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Divergences to mark a bottom?

The S&P is flirting with new bear market lows, but many other prices are nowhere near those levels. Here is a list.

USDJPY: Hanging around 99.50. Bottomed right below 87.50 in mid-December, and was definitely highly correlated to the global unwind, falling with it. Note this has helped the dollar index break out above previous mid November highs (87.79). The weak JPY helps Japan when propensity to consume (rather than save) is high enough. We'll see if this is a meaningful weakening.

Copper: Again bottomed mid-December around 40c lower. At 1.67/pound, new recent 'bull market' highs for the respective resource.

Crude: Front month contango is narrowest in a long time, at 1.80. Price bottomed around 32.50 on one of the recent front month expiration liquidations. Treading water a bit higher at 44.10 at the moment.

NASDAQ: Just barely held on above November lows.

VIX: Hit 52 yesterday when amid new S&P lows, while previous peak was 89.53.

10/30 year treasuries: The standard measure of fear, although one could argue supply here as a giant factor. Yields near 3.0% and 3.6% versus mid december lows of 2.0% and 2.52%.

Gold and silver, argued as a destination of fear money, has lost steam through the latest market fall as well. As you see, decoupling infers a meaningful deleveraging has occurred. Time will tell if these divergences have any predictive value.

2 comments:

  1. Michael - love your blog. Linked this post on in my left column: http://capitalcurrents.com

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  2. Michael - I am embarrassed to contact you here but you wrote the KrauseSlope for NinjaTrader and I do have a question. Could you please email me at mmehrle [at ] yahoo (not my google account)?

    Thanks!

    Mole

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